Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
Puzzle Financial Advice
Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
Puzzle Financial Advice is NO LONGER providing personal financial advice
Vaccine Boosters
Dr Norman Swan says over-50s should get AstraZeneca now + Pfizer booster at years end. Better protection than 2 Pfizer shots. 25/May/21
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At 2mins40 into this clip, Norman suggests that Aussie's 50+ will :
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be better off getting AstraZeneca now plus Pfizer booster at year's end (He says that is what the Federal Government's policy SHOULD be promising to those Aussies 50+)
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Other countries are now starting to use Vaccine Boosters. At 16/8/21, is Australia going to be at the back of the queue in ordering and starting to provide COVID vaccine boosters again?
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A friend in Thailand told me that Thailand is now (15/Aug/21) giving front-line health workers, the new Pfizer booster.
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And now we know that Britain (which mainly used AstraZeneca) will be starting to use boosters "next month" .. and I bet those are Pfizer boosters.
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"Sajid Javid, the UK Health Secretary, confirmed that third dose booster shots would be given from next month."
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So now we know that Israel has been testing the new Pfizer booster ... and it works https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425089101926080514
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"Current Israel data for mRNA vaccination in people age >60, 1st to get vaccines >6 months ago, now confronting Delta infections 1. Vaccines work but their apparent effectiveness is diminished over time + Delta 2. Boosters showing some preliminary evidence of working"
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Many other countries are at least considering or ordering Pfizer boosters now
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5/August/21 https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/countries-weigh-need-booster-covid-19-shots-2021-08-05/ This is a good summary, country by country.
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Note also that Eric Topol now thinks that the mRNA vaccines are only 50-60% effective against symptomatic delta variant COVID infection. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425492860619481098
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18/Aug/21 "United States readies to roll out COVID-19 vaccination booster jabs in coming months"
So let us hope with all their secrecy, the Aussie government has already ordered mRNA boosters for all of us who have received AstraZeneca. At 17/Aug/21, from this web page https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccine-government-response/australias-vaccine-agreements , it would seem that Australia has only ordered 15million Moderna boosters - and no other boosters. if that is all that Australia has ordered, that seems to be far too little. So Australia might be at the end of the queue again in ordering boosters .... and so very late again in getting boosters into Australian arms. Not good.
If the Australian government was interested in creating the best health outcome for all Australian's, Australia should be starting to implement Pfizer vaccine boosters NOW for Australian's vaccinated early (or with AstraZeneca) https://www.puzzlefinancialadvice.com/boosters-for-australia-now-aug-21
Data showing the rate of decline of effectiveness of Pfizer & AstraZeneca boosters.
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https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1428211823396876292?s=27 19-Aug-21
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"New large UK study confirms attrition of @Pfizer vaccine effectiveness vs Delta infections over time https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/covid-vaccines-are-less-effective-against-delta-in-u-k-study "By roughly 4 1/2 months after the 2nd dose, Pfizer’s shot will probably be about on par with Astra’s at preventing infections with a high viral burden"
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1 more point, since the UK gave @Pfizer at 3-4 wks and 8-12 wks dosing schedules: "The study also suggested that the time between doses did not affect effectiveness in preventing new infections" but unclear if this pertains to Delta infections or overall.
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https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/delta-astrazeneca-pfizer-scientists-oxford-b951340.html
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"Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at the University of Oxford, said: “We don’t yet know how much transmission can happen from people who get Covid-19 after being vaccinated – for example, they may have high levels of virus for shorter periods of time. But the fact that they can have high levels of virus suggests that people who aren’t yet vaccinated may not be as protected from the Delta variant as we hoped. This means it is essential for as many people as possible to get vaccinated – both in the UK and worldwide.”
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Bruce Baker bottom line: Herd immunity is not achievable with Delta variant and current vaccines. So High vaccination levels will not provide protection for the unvaccinated in our community!!!!
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25-Aug-21 "Israel’s boosters show signs of taming delta"
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"On July 30, it began administering a third dose of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine to people over 60, the first country to do so. On Thursday it expanded eligibility to 30-year-olds and up whose second dose was given at least five months prior, saying the age may drop further. In the past 10 days, the pandemic is abating among the first age group, more than a million of whom have received a third vaccine dose, according to Israeli health ministry data and scientists interviewed by Reuters. The rate of disease spread among vaccinated people age 60 and over – known as the reproduction rate – began falling steadily around August 13 and has dipped below 1, indicating that each infected person is transmitting the virus to fewer than one other person. A reproduction rate of less than 1 means an outbreak is subsiding."
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Bruce Baker comment: A quick thought on the commentary above. While NSW now seems to have given up any idea of eliminating delta (getting back to 0 cases/day). The data now coming out of Israel which has a very high rate of double dose Pfizer initial vaccine, is that they are needing the Pfizer booster to start getting the current delta outbreak in Israel under control. This creates the possibility (if this is seen as a desirable goal), that getting back to 0 cases per day community transmission would become possible again, with use of the Pfizer booster.
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25-Aug-21 "COVID vaccine booster shots 'will happen' in Australia, with experts weighing up Delta risk and breakthrough infections"
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'Australia has bought 60 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine for 2022 and 25 million doses for 2023, as will as additional supplies of the Moderna vaccine and 51 million doses of Novavax, which is yet to be approved. Health Minister Greg Hunt suggested earlier this month a booster would likely be offered in Australia "12 months" after initial vaccination, but no concrete policy has yet been set.
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"[We] won't be in the position to give third doses until everyone has had at least one dose," he said.
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Countries with advanced vaccine programs such as Israel have already commenced booster programs via third Pfizer shots to the elderly and health care workers. The booster program came after the country was hit by resurgence of COVID-19, with seven-day average daily case numbers surging past 6,500. Early studies from the program, which kicked off late last month, found protection against infection provided from 10 days after a third dose was four times higher than after two doses.'
2-Aug-21 New focus on vaccine boosters
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https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/focus-on-vaccine-boosters-as-israel-becomes-first
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Also speaking on Monday, University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said that overseas data suggested booster shots using mRNA vaccines could be particularly effective. He believes a boosting program should be in place in Australia by early next year. ‘Let’s think ahead a bit more. We want to get everybody fully dosed, or as many people as possible with AstraZeneca or Pfizer,’ he told 3AW. ‘But then we are going to need to boost. This Delta virus is really quite something. We are going to want to boost first of all those people who have had AstraZeneca and top them up with mRNA, and we are also going to want to vaccinate the children.
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‘Those two things would be happening, I hope, early next year so we are in good shape then for opening up to the rest of the world somewhere around March or Easter next year.’
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In addition to the further Pfizer doses, Australia is expecting 51 million doses of the Novavax vaccine to start arriving by the end of this year. Minister Hunt said last Thursday the Novavax vaccine doses would be ‘ready to be used as a booster as well’.
14-Jul-21 "Novavax | How does Novavax work?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlB-5E-wpU0
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There is a key point at the 12minute 01 second point.:-
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Novavax is 93% effective against the orgiinal Wuhan strain of the COVID virus - that is now ancient history!!
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Novavax is only 55% effective against Beta variant.
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I will keep an eye out for delta variant efficacy.
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2-Aug-21 "New focus on vaccine boosters" https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/focus-on-vaccine-boosters-as-israel-becomes-first
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"However, in a sign of the likely ongoing demand for its vaccine, Pfizer announced last month it had reached a deal to supply a further 200 million further (booster) doses to the US government to be delivered from October this year until April 2022.
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The company cited data in its second-quarter teleconference last week which suggests the level of antibodies created by a third (Pfizer booster) dose could be up to the five times the level produced after two doses, and potentially even higher in older patient cohorts.
Doherty Report could grossly underestimate deaths & hospitalisations (and Long-COVID) at 70% & 80% of over-16 year old Aussies vaccinated - More reason to start injecting Pfizer boosters ASAP. 28/Aug/2021
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The combination of the following facts & observations suggest very strongly to me at least that the Doherty modelling is highly likely to be grossly under-estimating deaths & hospitalisations when 70% & 80% of over 16 year-old Aussies are vaccinated. (Doherty Report also seems to ignore Long-COVID among those that are delta infected) Eg just look at deaths & hospitalisation rates in :
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US where 52% are fully vaccinated AND
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Israel where 60% are fully vaccinated.
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First, this is Professor Quentin's Grafton's view. http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/AFR/210825_AFR_Israels_COVID_vaccine_boosters_show_signs_of_taming_delta.pdf
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Denmark has very low Delta deaths & hospitalisation. Denmark's secret for defeating Delta - it is the 3rd highest fully vaccinated country in the world with 71% of the population fully vaccinated – almost entirely with Pfizer.
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In the Doherty Report guidelines under which the Federal government is using to reopen the economy, they are talking about 70% & 80% of Australians OVER AGE 16 being vaccinated. Note:
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70% of over 16 year olds = 56% of all Australians fully vaccinated
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80% of over 16 year olds = 64% of all Australians fully vaccinated. Note: Israel, which has 60% of its population fully vaccinated with Pfizer, is having to resort to the the Pfizer booster to get its current delta death & hospitalisation rates down.
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https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations Use this site for hospitalisation rates
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Denmark is almost entirely using the Pfizer vaccine. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/denmark-continues-exclude-jj-covid-19-vaccine-national-roll-out-tv-2-2021-06-25/
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Because Denmark has now "tamed delta", they are lifting all restrictions. Now lifting all restrictions and doing to safely in this COVID world, seems like a wonderful objective. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2021/08/27/denmark-lifts-all-coronavirus-restrictions-except-entry-rules/?sh=1519fb371dd5
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At 28/Aug/21, Pfizer & Moderna boosters are not forecast to be received in Australia until 2022. This data above suggests to me, that on the current Federal Government timetable for providing mRNA booster shots, delta may have caused very many needless fatalities, hospitalisations & Long-COVID. Greater government urgency re boosters is clearly required. And YES, it is a RACE AGAINST COVID. It is a race to build the highest possible vaccine protection for all Australians with as great as possible urgency, so that the Australian economy can be opened comparatively safely.
28-July-21 Pfizer presentation. https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Q2-2021-Earnings-Charts-FINAL.pdf
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Re Pfizer Booster effectiveness vs Delta:
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"Initial data shows booster dose of current vaccine (>6 mo. after 2nd dose of BNT162b2) has an overall consistent tolerability profile while eliciting SARS-CoV-2 neutralization titers >5-8X for wild type and 15-21X for Beta variant the range achieved after two primary doses
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Post dose 3 titers versus the Delta variant are >5-fold post dose 2 titers 18-55 y/o & >11-fold post dose 2 titers 65-85 y/o"
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"Delta variant vaccine: First batch manufactured; clinical studies projected to begin in Aug. (subject to regulatory approvals)"
24/Aug/21 "Israel's COVID-19 vaccine boosters show signs of taming Delta"
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https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-covid-19-vaccine-boosters-show-signs-taming-delta-2021-08-24/
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"More than half of those over 60 have received a third (Pfizer booster) jab, according to the Health ministry. The rate of new severe cases among unvaccinated patients 70 and older is now seven times that of vaccinated patients, and the gap will continue to grow as long as infections rise, according to Gazit. Among those over 50, that gap is four-fold. "We are optimistic, but very cautious," Israeli Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz told public broadcaster Kan on Sunday. "It gives us more time, slows the spread and we're moving away from lockdown."
22/Aug/21 "Israel finds (Pfizer) COVID-19 vaccine booster significantly lowers infection risk"
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"JERUSALEM, Aug 22 (Reuters) - A third dose of Pfizer (PFE.N)'s COVID-19 vaccine has significantly improved protection from infection and serious illness among people aged 60 and older in Israel compared with those who received two shots, findings published by the Health Ministry showed on Sunday."
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"Breaking down statistics from Israel's Gertner Institute and KI Institute, ministry officials said that among people aged 60 and over, the protection against infection provided from 10 days after a third dose was four times higher than after two doses. A third jab for over 60-year-olds offered five to six times greater protection after 10 days with regard to serious illness and hospitalisation."
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"Countries with advanced vaccine programs such as Israel have already commenced booster programs via third Pfizer shots to the elderly and health care workers. The booster program came after the country was hit by resurgence of COVID-19 (delta), with seven-day average daily case numbers surging past 6,500. Early studies from the program, which kicked off late last month, found protection against infection provided from 10 days after a third dose was four times higher than after two doses."
18-Aug-21 Assessment of Boosters by Eric Topol - great summary
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgcJaqx3JHs&t=256s Anne de Gheest COVID update 27-Aug-21 - great update






https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1438312660974538755 16-Sept-21
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Where do we stand for the 3rd shot decision later this week after a bolus of new reports from Israel, Pfizer, @PHE_UK, AZ, and Moderna? Evidence is clear-cut for a 3rd shot in people age ≥ 60 months out from Pfizer (protect vs severe illness)
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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1438312660974538755/photo/3
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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1438312660974538755/photo/4


Summary of the case for getting 2021 mRNA COVID booster
ATAGI & the government made announcements 8-Oct-21. Below is why you should get a 2021 mRNA COVID booster ASAP.
I think that it is highly likely that delta will be spread through Qld by Christmas at least as much as it is now in NSW & Victoria - only so long we can keep this highly infectious virus out of Qld ..... and Victoria/NSW & ScoMo are rushing to open up their economies and the international border .... and this will cause growing pressure on Annastacia to follow suit in Qld ....
Reasons you should have a booster:-
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Much greater effectiveness of the 2021 mRNA boosters vs 2020 COVID vaccines
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far more data on Pfizer booster but from what I have read Moderna booster will be as good - as long as you get the 2021 booster, not an extra dose of the original 2020 mRNA vaccines
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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425089101926080514 Very impressive data from Israel
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https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1445936866025304066?s=27 "New data highlights (that with a booster you have) significantly more protection vs symptomatic infections and, to a lesser extent, hospitalizations"
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Effectiveness of 2020 COVID vaccines decline over time:
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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1445936870634885123 (Noting that AstraZeneca never provided nearly as good protection against COVID vs mRNA vaccines)
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https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1428211823396876292?s=27 19-Aug-21 "New large UK study confirms attrition of @Pfizer vaccine effectiveness vs Delta infections over time https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/covid-vaccines-are-less-effective-against-delta-in-u-k-study "By roughly 4 1/2 months after the 2nd dose, Pfizer’s shot will probably be about on par with Astra’s at preventing infections with a high viral burden"
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Long COVID risk is much lower if you get a 2021 mRNA booster.
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Transmission risk is substantially reduced if you have a 2021 mRNA booster
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https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1443605872853221382?s=27
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Vaccination reduces transmission; the extent appears to vary with the vaccine and the #SARSCoV2 strain https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1
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Alpha: Pfizer 82%, AZ 63% reduction
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Delta: Pfizer 65%, AZ 36% reduction
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For both economic reasons and in the best health interests of all Australians, there is an already overwhelming case for commencing roll-out of 2021 Pfizer & Moderna COVID boosters now!!