Puzzle Financial Advice

25-Aug-21   "Israel’s boosters show signs of taming delta"

• http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/AFR/210825_AFR_Israels_COVID_vaccine_boosters_show_signs_of_taming_delta.pdf   

• "On July 30, it began administering a third dose of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine to people over 60, the first country to do so. On Thursday it expanded eligibility to 30-year-olds and up whose second dose was given at least five months prior, saying the age may drop further. In the past 10 days, the pandemic is abating among the first age group, more than a million of whom have received a third vaccine dose, according to Israeli health ministry data and scientists interviewed by Reuters. The rate of disease spread among vaccinated people age 60 and over – known as the reproduction rate – began falling steadily around August 13 and has dipped below 1, indicating that each infected person is transmitting the virus to fewer than one other person. A reproduction rate of less than 1 means an outbreak is subsiding."

  • Bruce Baker comment: A quick thought on the commentary above. While NSW now seems to have given up any idea of eliminating delta (getting back to 0 cases/day). The data now coming out of Israel which has a very high rate of double dose Pfizer initial vaccine, is that they are needing the Pfizer booster to start getting the current delta outbreak in Israel under control. This creates the possibility (if this is seen as a desirable goal), that getting back to 0 cases per day community transmission would become possible again, with use of the Pfizer booster.

    • https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=aus&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&areasRegional=usmi&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths   

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25-Aug-21 "COVID vaccine booster shots 'will happen' in Australia, with experts weighing up Delta risk and breakthrough infections"

• https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-25/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-booster-shots-for-australia/100393856

• 'Australia has bought 60 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine for 2022 and 25 million doses for 2023, as will as additional supplies of the Moderna vaccine and 51 million doses of Novavax, which is yet to be approved. Health Minister Greg Hunt suggested earlier this month a booster would likely be offered in Australia "12 months" after initial vaccination, but no concrete policy has yet been set. 

• "[We] won't be in the position to give third doses until everyone has had at least one dose," he said.  

• Countries with advanced vaccine programs such as Israel have already commenced booster programs via third Pfizer shots to the elderly and health care workers. The booster program came after the country was hit by resurgence of COVID-19, with seven-day average daily case numbers surging past 6,500. Early studies from the program, which kicked off late last month, found protection against infection provided from 10 days after a third dose was four times higher than after two doses.'

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2-Aug-21  New focus on vaccine boosters

• https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/focus-on-vaccine-boosters-as-israel-becomes-first 

• Also speaking on Monday, University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said that overseas data suggested booster shots using mRNA vaccines could be particularly effective. He believes a boosting program should be in place in Australia by early next year.  ‘Let’s think ahead a bit more. We want to get everybody fully dosed, or as many people as possible with AstraZeneca or Pfizer,’ he told 3AW.  ‘But then we are going to need to boost. This Delta virus is really quite something. We are going to want to boost first of all those people who have had AstraZeneca and top them up with mRNA, and we are also going to want to vaccinate the children.

• ‘Those two things would be happening, I hope, early next year so we are in good shape then for opening up to the rest of the world somewhere around March or Easter next year.’

• In addition to the further Pfizer doses, Australia is expecting 51 million doses of the Novavax vaccine to start arriving by the end of this year. Minister Hunt said last Thursday the Novavax vaccine doses would be ‘ready to be used as a booster as well’.

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14-Jul-21 "Novavax | How does Novavax work?"   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlB-5E-wpU0  

• There is a key point at the 12minute 01 second point.:-

  • Novavax is 93% effective against the orgiinal Wuhan strain of the COVID virus - that is now ancient history!!

  • Novavax is only 55% effective against Beta variant.

  • I will keep an eye out for delta variant efficacy.

    • This is a starting point https://healthtimes.com.au/hub/covid-19/74/news/aap/study-shows-novavax-jab-effective-against-delta/6076/