Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
Puzzle Financial Advice
Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
Puzzle Financial Advice is NO LONGER providing personal financial advice
The most speculative asset sectors now falling
22/May/21 At the end of a long bull market, there is typically a set of speculative assets and asset class sectors that have been leading that speculative phase of the market, and often these will also end up being the leaders on the way now. This web page is to chart a few of those speculative leaders.
Charts updated 30/Aug/21
The above chart is from here https://www.indxx.com/indxx-spac--nextgen-ipo-index-tr
10//Jul/21 Re: The chart below, is from Professor Robert Shiller (Yale Uni) who used this very long-term US data data to call US house prices a bubble in 2006. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_Exuberance_(book) It was of course, the US house price bubble & associated extreme US mortgage debt levels that caused the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-2009
US real house prices are back at similar levels to what they were in 2006 .... at the peak ...
and debt in the USA is now far more extreme than it was in 2006-2009
Should this chart be among "speculative leaders" set? Perhaps not ... but this chart strongly suggests that US house prices have become quite speculative now.