Transition to renewables to be quick.

The global transition to renewables will be far quicker than most people expect. If that is not obvious to you, perhaps watching Tony Seba's latest presentation will give you a sense of why this will happen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-kbzfWzvSI&t=3123s

Developed world economies will and are transitioning to renewables for 2 reasons:

  • Most importantly, the simple economics of renewable energy will drive the transition from fossil fuels to renewables by itself. https://gridbeyond.com/why-the-shift-to-renewable/By 2020, renewables are expected to be cheaper than fossil fuels in every major region of the world, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.” Looking forward, every 18 months, solar energy gets cheaper by a factor of 2. And energy storage is getting cheaper by a factor of 2 every 4 years, though I suspect that, given the huge research investment currently going into energy storage, that this will speed up.

  • I know that everyone does not agree with the science around climate change - but a lot of nations have already committed to zero nett emissions by 2050. But the transition to renewables will now happen on economic alone anyhow. The only question for Australia is how much Australian industry will benefit from this transition. https://sdg.iisd.org/news/73-countries-commit-to-net-zero-co2-emissions-by-2050/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/


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The above chart means that by 2025, every new vehicle will be electric - for purely economic reasons. Electric cars from US$12,500. This also means that the resale value of your internal combustion engine (ICE) car will start to fall a lot soon.



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Transport_as-a-Service will be 10X cheaper than owning your own car.

2021 is the expected tipping point. So you probably have owned your last car.

This has big implications on many levels - to the car industry - to car ownership - to town planning - to transport planning etc etc

Huge economic implications on a national basis. etc etc etc




And oil prices go down to about US$21/barrel as soon as 2021. 44mins.


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This is where we are heading - soon - and this spells big trouble for transmission companies on top of the trouble that it will cause to grid-scale power generation systems.



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Tony Seba's new research Report https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture



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