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Disconnect between Main St and Wall St - El Erian

Wall St (The US stock market) is around record highs, yet the Main St ( the average person) as reflected for example by the health of the US economy is not at all feeling healthy. When the government has to pump historical extreme fiscal deficits into the economy just to keep the economy "afloat", then the economy is not healthy. When the unemployment rate is very high (like now), the economy is not healthy - and many average people in community are struggling. Historical extreme lows of the US cash rate and US bond yields, are symptomatic of a sick economy - not a sign of economic health.

So in this recent Tweet , highly regarded US economist Mohamed A. El-Erian says as follows:- This is "How one cartoonists captures the great disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street."

Now "Wall St" (the US share market) tends to reflect how wealthy people feel, not how the average person feels. Wealthy people are "typically" feeling fairly good because 1) they own the vast majority of US stocks, 2) because the share market has been rising and 3) they tend not to get hurt nearly so much in an economic crisis or recession, because they far less likely to be unemployed if they wanted work, and many of them do not need to work, to be financially secure.

But generally over the medium-term, you would expect that the health of Wall St and Main St cannot diverge for "too long". This is a much bigger discussion, which I will not start here but why instead don't we look at "what is going to give" to bring Wall St and Main St back into some form of convergence.

Or to put it another way, the above chart strongly suggests that the US share market is in some form of speculative bubble.

But not all markets are so extreme.

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