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Australia at major risk from resistant COVID variants by late 2021.

COVID is far more dangerous than I realised. 5th April 2021

Note: COVID updates from 18/4/2017 are here

  • Until I watched Anne de Gheest’s 2/April/21 COVID research update. @ADeGheest last evening (3/April/21), I was starting to feel that by mid 2021, the Western developed world would be starting to “get back to ‘normal’”, because COVID vaccinations were rolling out very rapidly in the USA and UK and Europe was rapidly escalating their vaccination program.

  • Now I am starting to think that it might be something closer to end of 2022 or maybe even later - and the cost to deal with COVID will be far higher than I had been expecting.

  • And I am now realising that Long-COVID maybe an even bigger problem than the initial COVID inflections.

Key slides from Anne’s presentation are here

7/April/21 Additional important reading.

11/April/21 Update

  • On Thursday 8th/April/21 it was announced that all people under age 50 recommended to have the Pfizer vaccine

  • On the night of Thursday 8th/April/, 20million more doses of Pfizer vaccine was ordered - for delivery in Q42021. This necessarily will slow down the rollout of vaccine to Australians. And maybe the Q4 Pfizer vaccines will be an updated vaccine to deal with the South African and Brazilian COVID variants more effectively as well. With an mRNA vaccine, Pfizer/BioNTech should be able to deliver an updated vaccine well before then.

  • And Australia is now going to keep its borders closed until 2022.

  • I think these quick decisions are a rational reaction to the latest COVID research above that I published on 5April2021. So I think that is a positive thing.

  • We were also reminded on Friday that Australia also has 51million Novavax COVID vaccine ordered with expected delivery (assuming approved) commencing in June 2021. And testing of the Novavax vaccine seems to be indicating similar levels of effectiveness as the 2 mRNA vaccines at this point.



  • Clearly, Australia must continue to adapt its COVID strategy as the nature of the COVID problem changes.

  • But we can already see that in Q4CY2021 at the latest, Australia needs to be reimmunising older Australians with updated vaccines to deal with the latest COVID variants.

13/April/21 Update

14/April/21 Update

15/April/21 Update

16/April/21 Update

Appendix A. USA’s 3rd COVID wave begins – driven by UK strain of COVID.

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