Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
Puzzle Financial Advice
Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
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Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine
Relevant articles
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https://twitter.com/BioNTech_Group/status/1394322430689226754
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@EMA_News has approved a change to the existing storage conditions for our #COVID19 vaccine: The thawed, undiluted vaccine can be stored at fridge temperatures of 2-8°C for 1 month, instead of 5 days at fridge temperatures, as previously indicated. https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/
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9/Jul/21 https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-07/Delta_Variant_Study_Press_Statement_Final_7.8.21.pdf
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"Pfizer and BioNTech Provide Update on Booster Program in Light of the Delta-Variant NEW YORKand MAINZ, GERMANY, July8, 2021—As part of Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s continued efforts to stay ahead of the virus causing COVID-19 and circulating mutations, the companies are providing an update on their comprehensive booster strategy.
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Pfizer and BioNTech have seen encouraging data in the ongoing booster trial of a third dose of the current BNT162b2 vaccine. Initial data from the study demonstrate that a booster dose given 6 months after the second dose has a consistent tolerability profile while eliciting high neutralization titers against the wild type and the Beta (South African) variant, which are 5 to 10 times higher than after two primary doses.
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In addition, data from a recent Nature paper demonstrate that immune sera obtained shortly after dose 2 of the primary two dose series of BNT162b2 have strong neutralization titers against the Delta variant (B.1.617.2 lineage) in laboratory tests. The companies anticipate that a third dose will boost those antibody titers even higher, similar to how the third dose performs for the Beta variant (B.1.351).
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Related articles:
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23/Jul/21 "Covid vaccine: Eight-week gap seen as sweet spot for Pfizer jab antibodies"
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"A longer gap between first and second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine makes the body's immune system produce more infection-fighting antibodies, UK researchers have found. Experts say the findings support the UK's decision on extending dosing intervals from the initial recommendation of three weeks. An eight-week gap seems to be the sweet spot for tackling the Delta variant."
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23/Jul/21 "Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, But Largely Prevents Severe Illness, Israel Study Suggests"
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"A full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was just 39% effective at preventing infections and 41% effective at preventing symptomatic infections caused by the Delta Covid-19 variant, according to Israel’s health ministry, down from early estimates of 64% two weeks ago."
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The following is Eric Topol's summary of this https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1418262093678080002
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This is key for why Delta presents such a formidable challenge in promoting spread mRNA vaccines holding up really well against severe covid hospitalizations and deaths (88-91%), replicates But not nearly as well for preventing infections—big dropdown. Masks 😷 should help
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This is of course, why we will all need vaccine boosters from time to time (eg maybe yearly - but we will know more as we get more evidence) to keep safe and ahead of new variants as they arise [And Pfizer is already seeking US CDC approval for their updated vaccine that is much more effective against Beta & Delta variants - see above] ..... but this is also why they need to develop the broader spectrum vaccines that can cover all variants.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/11/new-hope-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-that-protects-against-all-variants/?sh=6837ffb9259d "New Hope For A Covid-19 Vaccine That Protects Against All Variants" 11/Mar/21
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The first generation of Covid-19 vaccines has proven to be remarkably effective. But now that new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are on the rise, the durability and true extent of the protection they offer is being called into question. While we certainly hope that their makers will be able to adapt, there is now evidence that a vaccine capable of immunizing against coronaviruses more broadly—not just SARS-CoV-2 and its new variants—could be on the horizon. Were this pancoronavirus vaccine to come to fruition, revising existing Covid-19 vaccines year in and year out wouldn’t be necessary.
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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/vaccines-can-protect-against-many-coronaviruses-could-prevent-another-pandemic "Vaccines that can protect against many coronaviruses could prevent another pandemic" 15/Apr/21
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In 2017, three leading vaccine researchers submitted a grant application with an ambitious goal. At the time, no one had proved a vaccine could stop even a single beta coronavirus—the notorious viral group then known to include the lethal agents of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), as well as several causes of the common cold and many bat viruses. But these researchers wanted to develop a vaccine against them all.
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Grant reviewers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) deemed the plan “outstanding.” But they gave the proposal a low priority score, dooming its bid for funding. “The significance for developing a pan-coronavirus vaccine may not be high,” they wrote, apparently unconvinced that the viruses pose a global threat. How things have changed.
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AFR 29/July/21 Pfizer: vaccine protective for at least 6 months - from Reuters
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The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine wanes slightly over time but it remains strongly protective for at least six months after the second dose, according to company data released. The findings are one piece of evidence that US health authorities will consider in deciding if and when booster doses might be needed. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech have said they plan to seek authorisation for boosters. Most important, protection against severe COVID-19 remains very high, at nearly 97 per cent, researchers found. Overall, protection against symptomatic COVID-19 was 91 per cent over the six-month period, the study found. But a closer look shows that efficacy against any symptomatic infection dropped gradually every two months, from a peak of 96 per cent two months after study participants got their second dose. By month four, efficacy was 90 per cent and by six months, it was about 84 per cent.
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Eric Topol also shares the related research on this here
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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/142041119400379187 29/July/21
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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1420779380654022659 30/July/21
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The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
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Eric also shares the following article clip from the Financial Times
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8/Aug/21 https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1424060673005264897?s=27 Eric Topol
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How are vaccines holding up against Delta? Updated table with latest data, including new J&J trial. Notable is the decline for protection of mRNAs vs infections (still very solid vs hospitalizations and deaths)

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7/Aug/21 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1423698071112753153
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An update on Delta, vaccination protection and viral loads from the aggregate data available, with new @PHE_uk data
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1. Delta infections are characterized by very high viral loads (low Cts). When a breakthrough occurs, the load is similar to unvaccinated, but clears more rapidly
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2. Although the new @PHE_uk on effectiveness (VE) remains unchanged vs. Delta, it doesn't break out mRNA and AZ https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1008919/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_31.pdf
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3. The totality of the data suggests VE for mRNA vaccines vs Delta infections has been substantially reduced, ~95% vs ancestral strain, now 50-60% vs Delta, particularly noting new REACT data OTOH VE vs hospitalizations & death is holding up well, > 95% (J&J data today 71%)