Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
Puzzle Financial Advice
Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
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Long term Debt cycle peaking.
This is our biggest and most central current investment risk.
A chart is a good way to introduce you to the long-term debt cycle.
The chart above shows the US long-term debt cycle. The previous peak to the long-term debt cycle in the USA was in 1929, immediately before the Great Depression. Observe that in the current long-term debt cycle, a far great extreme in US total debt/GDP has occurred. Also, please be aware that "usually" after the peak of the long-term debt cycle, there is economic depression ..... we have seen this in both USA and Australia for example, going back to 1850.
If you wish to learn more about this critically important long-term debt cycle, a very good paper to read is this paper from Ray Dalio. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/help-put-recent-economic-market-moves-perspective-ray-dalio/
For one view of the Australian equivalent of the long-term US debt bubble seen in the above chart, you might look to the chart below ... from the Australian Newspaper.
Or you might look at the chart below.
On Debt bubbles:
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
Ludwig von Mises (Austrian School of Economics)