Long term Debt cycle peaking.

This is our biggest and most central current investment risk.
A chart is a good way to introduce you to the long-term debt cycle.
US Debt bubble 161206.JPG

The chart above shows the US long-term debt cycle. The previous peak to the long-term debt cycle in the USA was in 1929, immediately before the Great Depression.  Observe that in the current long-term debt cycle, a far great extreme in US total debt/GDP has occurred.  Also, please be aware that "usually" after the peak of the long-term debt cycle, there is economic depression ..... we have seen this in both USA and Australia for example, going back to 1850.

If you wish to learn more about this critically important long-term debt cycle, a very good paper to read is this paper from Ray Dalio.    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/help-put-recent-economic-market-moves-perspective-ray-dalio/     

For one view of the Australian equivalent of the long-term US debt bubble seen in the above chart, you might look to the chart below ... from the Australian Newspaper.

Australian debt bubbles since 1890.JPG

Or you might look at the chart below.

Most_Aussie_private_debt_is_mortgages_16

On Debt bubbles:

  • There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

    • Ludwig von Mises (Austrian School of Economics)