Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
Puzzle Financial Advice
Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
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Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine
The Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine is an adenoviral vector vaccine, just as the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine is - and this seems to be why the J&J vaccine seems to be having similar blood clotting problems to the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Articles of relevance re: J&J COVID vaccine:
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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1384975362203918337 22/Apr/2021
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"The J&J vaccine Phase 3 trial is published @NEJM today At post >14 days 67% efficacy; >28 days 75% (85% vs severe/critical) and strong efficacy vs B.351 (South Africa) variant; very good safety profile"
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If I am reading correctly, the section of the paper that Eric Topol has shared, then:
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against the South African variant, 86 of 91 cases in South Africa with sequenced virus having the South African 20H/501Y.V2 variant, "vaccine efficacy against severe-critical COVID-19 was 7 52% and 64% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 with onset at least 14 days and at least 28days after administration respectively, and efficacy against severe-critical COVID-19 was 73.1% and 81,7% respectively."
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while against the original variant, it was 66.9% (59-73.4) effective after 14 days and 85.4% (54.2-96.9) effective after 28 days.
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So what I think this means that:
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the J&J vaccine probably won't stop you catching (and probably transmitting) the South African variant of COVID
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but it probably will stop you getting critically ill or dying from COVID.
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And this probably suggests that this might also be true for AstraZeneca vaccine.
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