Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
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Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
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COVID escape mutation E484K
British Medical Journal - "Covid-19: The E484K mutation and the risks it poses". 5Feb2021
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"E484K is called an escape mutation because it helps the virus slip past the body’s immune defences."
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"The E484K mutation is not a new variant in itself, it’s a mutation which occurs in different variants and has already been found in the South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian (B.1.1.28) variants." Public Health England (PHE)1Feb2021
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Some UK sample of the UK B.1.1.7 variant had been identified carrying the E484K mutation. This is a major concern because the UK variant is spreading rapidly around the world
Anne de Gheest update 2April2021.
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http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Anne_de_Gheest_COVID_update_210402.pdf
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The E484K mutation is also in the major Brazilian P.1 variant - as well as the South African B.1.351 variant.
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"AstraZeneca is ineffective with B.1.351"
Eric Topol mutation/variant summary 17/Apr/21 shows the the New York variant B.1.429/7 also has the E484K mutation.
Eric Topol 17/Apr/2021 shows that the Indian variant B.1.617 has a slightly different mutation at "place" 484. It has E484Q
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#E484K More about mutation E484K
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At the 18/4/21, this web page reports:
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"E484K has been reported to be an escape mutation (i.e. a mutation that improves a virus's ability to evade the host's immune system)"
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"The P.1. lineage described in Japan and Manaus, the P.2 lineage (also known as B.1.1.248 lineage, Brazil) and 501.V2 (South Africa) exhibit this mutation. A limited number of B.1.1.7 genomes with E484K mutation have also been detected."
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Why are "escape mutations" important to understand?
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Because:
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In Anne de Gheest's 2/Apr/2021 presentation, she shared that:
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in a survey of 77 epidemiologists from 28 countries:-
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66% of those expert epidemiologists thought that mutations over the next 12 months will render existing vaccine versions ineffective,
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33% thought that this would occur within 9 months.
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I think that I am therefore stating by saying that:-
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To keep all Australia safe from COVID variants, Australia probably need the ability to acquire and distribute/vaccinate the entire Australian population within 3 months. I suspect this in turn implies:
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That Australia probably cannot bet on any one particular vaccine (and "parent" pharmaceutical company) to be able have vaccine-updates for the latest variants ready "in time" to vaccinate all Australians
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Development. The vaccine update has to be developed in a timely fashion AND
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Manufacture and provision. The vaccine-update must be manufacture very quickly and made available very quickly to Australia.
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This probably means that we need to be having AT LEAST 3 of the "most reliable" suppliers in Australia's COVID arsenal AND the ability to manufacture high volume of at least 2 of these over 3 months ( i.e. both produce enough for half of Australian entire population) AND that as that manufacture/provision is occurring simultaneously with the manufacturing.
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This means that Australia needs to be constantly substantially over-provisioning of vaccine updates for Australia's population.
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And that excess supplies be provided to developing nations eg Pacific Islands and New Guinea first and then Asia.
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Australia needs to be working hand-in-glove with New Zealand on this at least. Other countries could be considered for this "club".
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