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Australia should be using Pfizer boosters now 21-Aug-21
This story caught my attention
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High risk to double-vaccinated Health Care Workers from delta variant - Community is in danger if we lose vaccinated health care workers to delta.
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23-Aug-21 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1429523296349872131
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Don't give your vaccination a Delta stress test. (aligns with prior posts that we don't have a true handle on US Delta breakthroughs, and concern Dr. Sauza raises with our healthcare workforce) https://twitter.com/drmeowza/status/1429221776270135296
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"I tested positive for COVID this week, along with 9 of 12 fully vaxxed friends (among others), days after we attended an outdoor wedding (that required proof of vaccination) in 1 of the lowest-risk states in the country. Thankful for protection against bad outcomes but YALL- uncontrolled spread of the more transmissible #DeltaVariant means that even relatively uncommon events are going to happen in significant numbers. I’m worried about its potential to wipe out ranks of HCWs (Health Care Workers), many of us vaxxed > 7 months ago = waned immunity relative to much of the public. It’s depressing, but we need to change behaviors in response to the mounting data showing that delta presents a new level of risk."
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The Pfizer booster is already proven in highly Pfizer-vaccinated Israel to be very effective.
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10/Aug/21 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425089101926080514
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"Current Israel data for mRNA vaccination in people age >60, 1st to get vaccines >6 months ago, now confronting Delta infections 1. Vaccines work but their apparent effectiveness is diminished over time + Delta 2. Boosters showing some preliminary evidence of working"
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Many other countries are already starting to implement Pfizer COVID Boosters. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/countries-weigh-need-booster-covid-19-shots-2021-08-05/
The UK will be starting to use Pfizer boosters next month. And the USA will be starting to implement COVID boosters soon
Highly Pfizer-vaccinated Israel has already proven that the Pfizerbooster (3rd shot) is having a dramatic impact to help improve the protection of their people from the delta variant. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425089101926080514
But as best I can determine, the only boosters that Australia has ordered are 15million Moderna boosters and they do not arrive until 2022. https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccine-government-response/australias-vaccine-agreements Fifteen million COVID vaccine boosters is not enough for Australia - & just backing the one horse again, a strategy which has caused Australia to be so far behind most countries. The Pfizer COVID booster is already proven to be highly effective, and from a risks management perspective, it is always best to back proven solutions rather than gambling on unproven possible solutions.
So it seems as if this is CONDITION NORMAL in Australia. Australia is about 6 months behind in vaccination vs most developed countries. https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=usa&areas=aus&areas=can&areas=sgp&areas=eue&areas=isr&cumulative=1&doses=full&populationAdjusted=1
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And now it seems that we will be AT LEAST 6 months behind in implementing COVID vaccine boosters.
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Australia is again at the end of the queue, last of the starting blocks with COVID Vaccine boosters AND it seems that
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Australia should be starting delivery/inject Pfizer boosters NOW to those who were vaccinated early, in parallel with giving first 2 vaccine jabs to the people who have not yet been vaccinated. This would help us combat the delta variant.
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At least some Pfizer booster's have been ordered - but it seems, like the Moderna boosters, they are not for shipment until 2022. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-25/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-booster-shots-for-australia/100393856 "Australia has bought 60 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine for 2022 and 25 million doses for 2023", but even though Israel is providing boosters 5 months after their second dose of Pfizer, the latest from the Australian government is 12 months after vaccination at 28-Aug-21. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-25/australia-secures-millions-of-pfizer-covid19-booster-shots/100321632 "Pfizer will produce 85 million booster shots for Australia, with the first batch to arrive sometime next year."
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'On July 30, it began administering a third dose of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine to people over 60, the first country to do so. On Thursday it expanded eligibility to 30-year-olds and up whose second dose was given at least five months prior, saying the age may drop further. In the past 10 days, the pandemic is abating among the first age group, more than a million of whom have received a third vaccine dose, according to Israeli health ministry data and scientists interviewed by Reuters. The rate of disease spread among vaccinated people age 60 and over – known as the reproduction rate – began falling steadily around August 13 and has dipped below 1, indicating that each infected person is transmitting the virus to fewer than one other person. A reproduction rate of less than 1 means an outbreak is subsiding.'
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"Countries with advanced vaccine programs such as Israel have already commenced booster programs via third Pfizer shots to the elderly and health care workers. The booster program came after the country was hit by resurgence of COVID-19 (delta), with seven-day average daily case numbers surging past 6,500. Early studies from the program, which kicked off late last month, found protection against infection provided from 10 days after a third dose was four times higher than after two doses."
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'"Health Minister Greg Hunt suggested earlier this month a booster would likely be offered in Australia "12 months" after initial vaccination, but no concrete policy has yet been set. '
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BB comment: Australia continues to play a long way behind the cutting edge of best-practice fighting COVID.
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The Australian government seems to be fighting today's COVID bushfires AND does not seem to be effectively thinking strategically from a medium-term perspective. We should have already placed adequate booster vaccine orders for ALL Australia - and we should have started to provide boosters to fully vaccinated (2-dose) older Australians & front-line health workers. And we should be ordering excess boosters - doubling up to be safer in case one or more of the boosters are not effective against delta or the next more dangerous variant that will probably be globally dominant by Christmas time. And if we end up having ordered too many effective boosters, that is a good problem to have (far better than not having enough) and we can always share the excess boosters with our neighbours in the Pacific and with our friends in SE Asia.
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The effectiveness of the original Pfizer vaccine (that Australian is using) diminishes significantly over 6 months https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1420411194003791872 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1420779380654022659 But https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/covid-19-infection-survey/results/new-studies "Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech have greater initial effectiveness against new COVID-19 infections, but this declines faster compared with two doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca. Results suggest that after four to five months effectiveness of these two vaccines would be similar".
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This data on rate of decline over time of Pfizer & AstraZeneca is very important and very useful.
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https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1428211823396876292?s=27
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This data would have been an important of highly-AstraZeneca vccinated UK's decision to start implementing Pfizer boosters next month (September) "Covid: UK vaccine booster scheme likely to start in September" https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58271911
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Vaccine are more effective for younger people than for older people. Therefore, to protect older people better, they need to continue to be the priority for vaccines and booster. https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/covid-19-infection-survey/results/new-studies "The time between doses does not affect effectiveness in preventing new infections, but younger people have even more protection from vaccination than older people."
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Herd immunity now appears unachievable with delta variant & current vaccines.
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https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/delta-astrazeneca-pfizer-scientists-oxford-b951340.html 19-Aug-21
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"Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at the University of Oxford, said: “We don’t yet know how much transmission can happen from people who get Covid-19 after being vaccinated – for example, they may have high levels of virus for shorter periods of time. But the fact that they can have high levels of virus suggests that people who aren’t yet vaccinated may not be as protected from the Delta variant as we hoped. This means it is essential for as many people as possible to get vaccinated – both in the UK and worldwide.”
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Bruce Baker bottom line: Herd immunity may not be achievable with Delta variant and current vaccines. So high vaccination levels will not provide protection for the unvaccinated in our community!!!! So it is even more important that we get COVID vaccine boosters to those people prepared and able to receive COVID vaccination - because that will provide a greater level of protection to the unvaccinated.
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The UK variant (Alpha) was first seen about November 2020 and was globally dominant by about February 2021. The delta strain was first seen above April 2021 and was globally dominant by July 2021. https://covariants.org/per-country In the USA, a cousin AY.4 of the main delta variety B.1.617.2, is already rapidly displacing B.1.617.2 in the USA https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA&selected=B.1.1.7&selected=B.1.617.2&selected=P.1&selected=AY.3 And there are a already number of other COVID variants contending to be the next even-more-dangerous globally dominant COVID variant.
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So we should expect the delta variant to be displaced by an even more dangerous globally dominant COVID variant by Christmas time. But is the government planning for this???? NO!!! What is the government thinking?
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What should Australia be doing?
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Australia should already have ordered 25 million doses of the Pfizer boost by now. Have they done this? Not as far as I can tell. We at least know Pfizer boosters are very effective in substantially increasing protection against delta - and Pfizer booster is proven in the field in Israel already
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Australia has ordered 15 million doses of Moderna, but these are not due for delivery until 2022 as best I can tell. https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccine-government-response/australias-vaccine-agreements I think there is some already some good preliminary results for teh Moderna booster - but these are not yet proven in mass vaccination. I did hear of a potential health (heart) issue over the last few days with the Moderna booster. But because these vaccines are mRNA and because Moderna's original COVID vaccine is about as effective as Pfizer's, these boosters will probably be quite effective. Probably. But we should not be leaving this to guesswork. Best to double order by buying enough boosters from multiple suppliers. The cost/benefit/risk equation makes this decision a no-brainer in my opinion. Look at the cost to Australia (the Federal & State budgets, and lost business income and lost wages) of Australia not getting our original vaccine strategy right. We cannot afford to get this wrong - again.
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Other useful references:-
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For more on Pfizer booster, see the bottom of this page https://www.puzzlefinancialadvice.com/pfizer-biontech-vaccine
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Re Delta variant https://www.puzzlefinancialadvice.com/indian-covid-variant