Warning the Aussie share market will crash

If there was ever a stark fundamentally-based warning that the Aussie share market was going to crash, this is it. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/market-rally-increases-equity-risk

"This is 4th (speculative) bubble of my (50-year) career" - Grantham

Jeremy Grantham , globally one the best analysts I know says: “My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth, real McCoy, bubble of my investment (50 year) career. The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain but at least I think we know now that we’re in one. And the chutzpah involved in having a bubble at a time of massive economic and financial uncertainty is substantial.” “This is really the real McCoy, this is crazy stuff,” said Grantham. “Grantham painted a very dire picture of the investment landscape in the U.S., suggesting that rampant trading by out-of-work investors and speculative fervor around bankrupt companies, including

Deglobalization Will Hurt Growth Everywhere - Rogoff

3/June/2020 Kenneth Rogoff: If deglobalization goes too far, no country will be spared.... Even the US, with its highly diversified economy, world-leading technology, and strong natural-resource base, could suffer a significant decline in real GDP as a result of deglobalization. The post-pandemic world economy seems likely to be a far less globalized economy, with political leaders and publics rejecting openness in a manner unlike anything seen since the tariff wars and competitive devaluations of the 1930s. And the byproduct will be not just slower growth, but a significant fall in national incomes for all but perhaps the largest and most diversified economies. Today, the COVID-19 pandem

UK economy shrinks by record 20 per cent in April

To state the obvious, economies do not recover quickly from a hit like this. "Output in the UK fell by 20.4 per cent in April, compared with the previous month, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. This is by far the largest contraction since monthly records began in 1997 and follows a 5.8 per cent contraction in March, the previous record fall. “April’s fall in GDP is the biggest the UK has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost 10 times larger than the steepest pre-Covid-19 fall,” said Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician for economic statistics at the ONS. “In April the economy was around 25 per cent smaller than in February.” Apri

Reliable market predictor says shares to fall. Jeremy Grantham

5/June/2020 Jeremy Grantham we are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratio for the S&P on prior earnings and simultaneously are in the worst 10% of economic situations, arguably even the worst 1%! ..... This is apparently one of the most impressive mismatches in history. we have never lived in a period where the future was so uncertain. the current market seems lost in one-sided optimism when prudence and patience seem much more appropriate. Simultaneously, it is causing supply and demand shocks unlike anything before. Ever. It is generating a much faster economic contraction than that of the Great Depression. And unlike 1989 Japan, 2000 Tech (U.S.), and 2008 (U.S. and Europe

Stock markets are ignoring reality - Ronsenberg

David Rosenberg Says the Bulls Are in Fantasyland David Rosenberg bluntly told attendees Monday at John Mauldin’s Virtual Strategic Investment Conference 2020 that the stock rallies in recent weeks ignore reality and don’t recognize that the United States is likely entering a depression, facing double-digit unemployment for at least three years, secular changes in consumer spending and saving, and deflation followed by stagflation. “The problem I have is that it's pure fantasy to think that normalized earnings are not going to be seriously dented by the likely permanent loss of some 10 million workers in the future from what the baseline was prior to the crisis, which means lost labor income

Era where return of money more important than return on money - Dalio

AFR 22/Nov/2019:- “We are coming into an environment where the return of money is becoming more important than the return on money,” Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of $235 billion US hedge fund Bridgewater told some of Australia's wealthiest and most powerful investors at a charity conference in Sydney. Please notice that Ray Dalio said this was before the COVID-19 crisis had struck, before we had even heard of the new coronavirus. http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2020/AFR/191122_AFR_Top_investors_call_end_to_free_money_Dalio_return_of_money_more_important_than_return_of_money.pdf But Ray has for quite some time, been warning of that investment markets were about to change in major wa

Australia's 'extraordinarily ill-considered' Asian foreign policy

John McCarthy, former very senior Australian Ambassador says: the role Australia played in the lead up to the WHA (World Health Assembly) resolution sums up all that is wrong with our foreign policy now. "My quibble with a lot of policy is that we get into stuff we don't need to. We say things that seem, particularly to those from an Asian background, extraordinarily ill-considered." The call by Foreign Minister Marise Payne for a coronavirus inquiry, made just four days after US President Donald Trump made a similar demand, is an example of such stuff. "Among my contacts, the perception was we were clearly following Trump, who has proved himself to be inept and totally driven by domestic

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