Martin Wolf's article: The (Imperial College London) paper analyses four sorts of costs: the costs of lost lives; the lost work days of the sick; the medical costs associated with higher incidence of disease; and the costs (primarily economic) of social distancing, both officially imposed and spontaneous. The overall conclusion is overwhelming. The least costly option is strong suppression: it saves lives, massively reduces medical costs and even lowers the economic costs of
Ray Dalio’s (and Bridgewater’s) research in the last 1000 years of history, point to 4 main drivers/influences over economic outcomes: Productivity which improves about 1-3% pa and builds wealth slowly over time. Short-term debt cycle – 8-10 years long, creating normal recessions and booms in the economy. Long-term debt cycle – about 50-75 years usually, is when you begin a new type of money and a new type of credit. The last/current cycle began in 1945 with the Bretton Woods
Private debt bubbles lead to financial crises. This is what the US private debt bubble currently looks like. https://neweconomics.opendemocracy.net/the-ten-graphs-which-show-how-britain-became-a-wholly-owned-subsiduary-of-the-city-of-london-and-what-we-can-do-about-it/ What about the UK private debt bubble?
Have a look at the sudden increase in people claiming unemployment benefits in the USA. https://twitter.com/nouriel/status/1243353418858672135?lang=en Chart goes back to 1970. Nothing like it through that previous 50 years. Nothing near it during the Global Financial Crisis. And yet, leading economists tell us this is only just the beginning. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/unemployment-claims-millions-increase-economist-commentary-krugman-roubini-elerian-coronavirus-2020