Best COVID-19 strategy is strong suppression health-wise and economy-wise

Martin Wolf's article: The (Imperial College London) paper analyses four sorts of costs: the costs of lost lives; the lost work days of the sick; the medical costs associated with higher incidence of disease; and the costs (primarily economic) of social distancing, both officially imposed and spontaneous. The overall conclusion is overwhelming. The least costly option is strong suppression: it saves lives, massively reduces medical costs and even lowers the economic costs of social distancing over the course of the epidemic. This is taken from this part of Martin Wolf's 24/4/20 article: These strategies are related to “mitigation” and “suppression”, as discussed in an influential paper from

Dalio - the 4 main influences on economic outcomes

Ray Dalio’s (and Bridgewater’s) research in the last 1000 years of history, point to 4 main drivers/influences over economic outcomes: Productivity which improves about 1-3% pa and builds wealth slowly over time. Short-term debt cycle – 8-10 years long, creating normal recessions and booms in the economy. Long-term debt cycle – about 50-75 years usually, is when you begin a new type of money and a new type of credit. The last/current cycle began in 1945 with the Bretton Woods Agreement., created a new monetary system. They wiped out the old money. This was the American World order that began in 1945. 70% of the global economy still runs with

The US private debt bubble

Private debt bubbles lead to financial crises. This is what the US private debt bubble currently looks like. What about the UK private debt bubble?

US unemployment skyrockets

Have a look at the sudden increase in people claiming unemployment benefits in the USA. Chart goes back to 1970. Nothing like it through that previous 50 years. Nothing near it during the Global Financial Crisis. And yet, leading economists tell us this is only just the beginning. And this COVID-19 induced unemployment surge is happening right around much of the global economy at this time. We are living in historic times. A m ore up-to-date chart is here posted on 10/April/2020. h

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