Worse than the Great Depression

Nouriel Roubini: "In other words, every component of aggregate demand – consumption, capital spending, exports – is in unprecedented free fall. While most self-serving commentators have been anticipating a V-shaped downturn – with output falling sharply for one quarter and then rapidly recovering the next – it should now be clear that the COVID-19 crisis is something else entirely. The contraction that is now underway looks to be neither V- nor U- nor L-shaped (a sharp downturn followed by stagnation). Rather, it looks like an I: a vertical line representing financial markets and the real economy plummeting." "Not even during the Great Depression and World War II did the bulk of economic act

COVID-19. Exogenous event needed for US recession. John Mauldin.

Here are some excerpts from John Mauldin's latest newsletter: "For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. The coronavirus obviously qualifies as an exogenous event. We actually face two concurrent crises. One is about public health, the other about the economy and markets. After talking to economists and medical researchers this week, I am pretty confident in two things: The virus will spread slowly but widely. We’ll get through this. Not without some damage and tragic loss of life, but it won’t be the end of the world. I wasn’t thinking of viruses when I said the 2020s would be the Decade of Disruption, but COVID-19

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