Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf

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Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."

IMF warns Corporate Debt is $27Trillion timebomb

IMF warns Corporate Debt is $27Trillion timebomb

Key Sections of this AFR article: The Washington-based fund also warned that companies had responded to ultra-low interest rates and plentiful liquidity by taking on levels of debt that risked becoming a $US19 trillion ($27.7 trillion) timebomb in the event of another global recession. In it's half-yearly update on the state of global financial markets, the IMF said almost 40 per cent of the corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, F

Not a great time to own Australian banks

Not a great time to own Australian banks

AFR article 17/10/2019 discussed the views of fund managers Platinum and Magellan. ' Even though risk-free rates have fallen, Mr Douglass was unwilling to rule out a scenario where US wage inflation increases to around 4 per cent and consumer price inflation increases to more than 2 per cent. That would force a rethink of the dynamic which has dominated shares in the era of ultra-easy monetary policy, and unleash a violent correction. "I'm not enamoured if I look out the nex

Emerging markets are comparative safe haven - Western economies are a basket case - Don Amstrad, Abe

Emerging markets are comparative safe haven - Western economies are a basket case - Don Amstrad, Abe

This interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WclYu5l4G0&feature=youtu.be with Don Amstrad of Aberdeen is well worth watching. I think Ray Dalio's assessment of the outlook is more precise than Don's assessment, but there are some very useful observations in what Don has to say: Emerging markets are the comparative safe haven. They will be hit hard in the next financial crisis. But they will recover first and they will recover fastest because they have the ability to do

Too much private debt caused the last 43 crises.

Too much private debt caused the last 43 crises.

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/videos/a-brief-history-of-doom In this interview, Richard Vague discusses his 200 year research into financial crises - investigating every one of the 43 major financial crises in 6 countries. Every one of them has been "caused" by too much private debt. And it is always private sector debt .... never government debt in developed countries. Key common symptoms across these 43 financial crises: Excessive private debt/GDP (in excess

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