Country GDP rankings in 2060 (PPP terms)
Based on PwC's forecasts ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(PPP)#Long_term_GDP_estimates ). the chart below shows the proportion of global GDP in Purchasing Power Parity terms in 2060. Purchaseing Parity Power terms is the best measure, because it relates to what a country's GDP can buy - the important measure (eg what you can purchase to fight a war - hence military might for example). For more discusson, you might like to go to thi
China's President Xi asserts global leadership in Davos meeting of the elites
The key article (in my view) coming out of the Davos so far this year is the following (also attached): http://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/xi-jinping-quotes-dickens-in-defence-of-trade-to-woo-the-crowds-at-davos-20170117-gttdi8 "There was something upside-down about Davos on Tuesday. China's Communist Party leader Xi Jinping became the chief defender of globalisation at one of the most capitalist gatherings in the world while the next President of the United State
A simple illustration of how valuations can change over time
The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE) of stock market is one of the most useful tools for investors. High CAPEs mean lower expected real return for the next 20 year on average. CAPE trend is also important for investors to monitor, not just level. In a secular bull market, the CAPE tends to trend higher over a period of around 20 years. In a secular bear market, where the CAPE is trending lower for about 15 years, even if profits are rising it is very difficult for any st
The rise of the Chinese consumer is surely the single most important economic trend - Jim O'Neil
" The rise of the Chinese consumer is surely the single most important economic trend in the world today, and trade-bashing populists in the West, such as Trump, would do well to pay attention. Indeed, there could not be a worse time to reduce trade with China, given that the West’s largest export sectors now have an opportunity to tap into a massive new market. " https://www.neweurope.eu/article/way-emerging-markets-2017/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_O'Neill,_Baron_O'Ne
China+India = 3 times USA by 2060
wC (Price Waterhouse Coopers) estimate that by 2060 in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Terms:- the combined GDP of China and India will be 3.7 times the USA, of the Western developed world, only USA and Germany will be in the top 10 economies. Australia will be ranked 29 AND Indonesia will be 6 times bigger than the Australian economy. Can you imagine how different that world will feel compared to today? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_
Valuation is not a timing indicator
This article on investopedia ( http://www.investopedia.com/news/repeat-after-me-valuation-not-catalyst/ ) is a useful reminder that high valuation metrics (eg the US share market is approaching the high valuations US shares had immediately before the 1929 crash) do not tell you that the market is about to crash. Rather, high valuations (on a historic basis) are a warning to pay close attention to technical indicators so try to detect a market down-turn. i.e. High valuations t
