Puzzle Financial Advice

If there was ever a stark fundamentally-based warning that the Aussie share market was going to crash, this is it.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/market-rally-increases-equity-risk

Jeremy Grantham , globally one the best analysts I know says:

• “My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth, real McCoy, bubble of my investment (50 year) career. The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain b...

3/June/2020 Kenneth Rogoff:

• If deglobalization goes too far, no country will be spared....   Even the US, with its highly diversified economy, world-leading technology, and strong natural-resource base, could suffer a significant decline in real GDP as a resul...

To state the obvious, economies do not recover quickly from a hit like this.

• "Output in the UK fell by 20.4 per cent in April, compared with the previous month, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. This is by far the largest contraction since m...

5/June/2020 Jeremy Grantham

• we are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratio for the S&P on prior earnings and simultaneously are in the worst 10% of economic situations, arguably even the worst 1%!  ..... This is apparently one of the most impressive mismat...

David Rosenberg Says the Bulls Are in Fantasyland

• David Rosenberg bluntly told attendees Monday at John Mauldin’s Virtual Strategic Investment Conference 2020 that the stock rallies in recent weeks ignore reality and don’t recognize that the United States is likely...

AFR 22/Nov/2019:-

• “We are coming into an environment where the return of money is becoming more important than the return on money,” Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of $235 billion US hedge fund Bridgewater told some of Australia's wealthiest and most powerful in...

John McCarthy, former very senior Australian Ambassador says:

• the role Australia played in the lead up to the WHA (World Health Assembly) resolution sums up all that is wrong with our foreign policy now.  "My quibble with a lot of policy is that we get into stuff we...

USA as a Superpower is in decline, and the Chinese are the rising Superpower. At what stage of this transition, are we at? Ray Dalio in his paper "The Big Cycles over the last 500 years", describes the stage of this transition as being like this.

 In this simplified rep...

In the last recession, Westpac had to be rescued by Kerry Packer and ANZ nearly had to be rescued. In recessions, bad debts tend to rise sharply. And now, it is likely that economic depression is ahead.  This puts Australian banks at high risk of major losses and possi...