Puzzle Financial Advice

What caused the GFC?

• The Bank of International Settlements says it was because there was too much debt. http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/Balance_sheet_recessions_explained_140922_02_why_West_with_have_slow_growth.pdf

• Professor Warwick McKibbin:  http://puzzl...

Key Sections of this AFR article:

• The Washington-based fund also warned that companies had responded to ultra-low interest rates and plentiful liquidity by taking on levels of debt that risked becoming a $US19 trillion ($27.7 trillion) timebomb in the event of anoth...

AFR article 17/10/2019 discussed the views of fund managers Platinum and Magellan. 

• ' Even though risk-free rates have fallen, Mr Douglass was unwilling to rule out a scenario where US wage inflation increases to around 4 per cent and consumer price inflation increa...

This interview  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WclYu5l4G0&feature=youtu.be    with Don Amstrad of Aberdeen is well worth watching. I think Ray Dalio's assessment of the outlook is more precise than Don's assessment, but there are some very useful observations in what...

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/videos/a-brief-history-of-doom

In this interview, Richard Vague discusses his 200 year research into financial crises - investigating every one of the 43 major financial crises in 6 countries. Every one of them has been "caused...

Martin Wolf warns of the high risk investors and the economy faces:

• Valuations of risky assets are, in many cases, stretched and balance sheet vulnerability is pandemic, as the (IMF's) Global Financial Stability Report   ( https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WE...

MFS Investment Management:-

• Mr Swanson, who joined MFS in 1985, admits you can't time cycles, but looking for signs can "give you a sense of how far you are from the waterfall".  He pointed to four signals that have put him on higher alert:

  • One is that...

The US market is in 7th innings of 9 in the current debt bubble says Ray Dalio, one of the most successful (ever) hedge fund managers. The closest parallel equivalent in other debt bubbles is ~1935. grim stuff ahead.

http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2018/GFC2/Dalio_o...

Kerr Neilson, consistently one of the best Australian fund managers, provides his recipe for investment success:

• Think about how the world is likely to be

• It is the competitor's response that matters most

• Learn to deal with media overload

• Anchor decis...

In a presentation this weeks by Schroders, the chart below was provided - showing that on a Price/Earnings basis, Australian industrial stocks are at their most expensive valuations seen over the last 30 years.  Why is this important? When investing, if you buy investm...