Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
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Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
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AstraZeneca vaccine shortcomings 18/6/21
There is very strong scientific evidence that AstraZeneca COVID vaccine a a significantly INFERIOR vaccine to the mRNA COVID vaccine. In my view, this is the real issue with AstraZeneca, not blood clots. Some of the evidence for this is at the bottom of this page. Every Australian deserves access to the very best COVID protection not just the few.
There are a few solutions to this:
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Solution 1. Dr Norman Swan's solution - the government should commit to all those getting AstraZeneca, to get them an mRNA vaccine booster by end of 2021. Elegant solution because of current short-supply of Pfizer in Australia. But has nto committed to do this.
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Solution 2. Vaccine Combinations. eg AstraZeneca first dose, Pfizer second dose. European countries plus Canada are already doing this. Australian government
It is true that there seems to be growing evidence that AstraZeneca vaccine substantially reduces the likelihood of death and hospitalisation - at least with some COVID variants. However, it seems that AstraZeneca is not nearly as effective against asymptomatic and mild/moderate COVID - and that is very problematic because up to 30% of asymptomatic to moderate infections can cause Long COVD - and that is VERY SERIOUS.
The Federal government needs to be open and honest with Australians, and commit to getting ALL Australians the best possible protection against COVID. To date they are not doing that.
Dr Norman Swan says over-50s should get AstraZeneca now + Pfizer booster at years end. Better protection than 2 Pfizer shots. 25/May/21
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At 2mins40 into this clip, Norman suggests that Aussie's 50+ will :
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be better off getting AstraZeneca now plus Pfizer booster at years end (He says that is what the Federal Government's policy SHOULD be promising to those Aussies 50+) THAN
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waiting for 2 shots of Pfizer at the end of the year. If you wait till year's end, you will be in the queue behind 12 years old, and you probably won't get Pfizer shot till well into 2022.
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If the Federal government made this commitment to Aussies 50+, this would then accelerate the take-up rate of AstraZeneca now, because it would offer a better option than what is currently on the table. And it would also be better for Australia, because it would help manage the major risk of a major COVID outbreak in Australia.
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Norman acknowledges that the AstraZeneca is less effective versus Indian variant than Pfizer vaccine.
Some of the evidence that AstaZeneca vaccine is clearly an INFERIOR vaccine compared with mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.
AstraZeneca vs Pfizer vaccine against the current dominant and most dangerous variant Indian DELTA 27/May/21
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Indian Delta Variant Information Delta variant is also known as B.1.617.2
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"Information about B.1.617 is emerging, but early reports indicate it spreads more easily than the original strain. Although there is limited data specifically on B.1.617.1, it is likely to behave similarly to B.1.617.2 as it is genetically similar. Early data from the UK’s NHS Test and Trace records showed B.1.617 spreads at least as easily as the UK strain (B.1.1.7). In fact, B.1.617.2 may be twice as likely to infect another person than the UK strain, which was already more infectious than the original Wuhan virus.
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"How effective are vaccines and how long do they take to kick in?
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For most variants of concern, vaccines are still effective, but are often less effective than they were against the original Wuhan virus." BB: The following data is from https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+the+B.1.617.2+variant.pdf/204c11a4-e02e-11f2-db19-b3664107ac42
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AstraZeneca vs Pfizer vaccine against South African also know as Beta variant. Astrazeneca "ineffective".
Slide from Anne de Gheest's Clinical presentation 30/Apr/2021. Note the line: "AstraZeneca is ineffective with B.1.351". Based on the scientific research, Anne de Gheest concludes:
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AstraZeneca in ineffective against the South African variant (B.1.351)
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And hence, AstraZeneca is most likely ineffective against the other variants of concern ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#Concern ) that have the same E484K mutation i.e. AstraZeneca at 1/June/21 seems ineffective against the Brazilian variants ( P.1 & P.2), the New York variant ( B.1.429 ) , some samples of the UK variant (B.1.1.7) . Also review https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#E484K

Opinion: The problem with AstraZeneca is not clotting, but effectiveness
A lot of questions surround the role of AstraZeneca in Australia’s Covid-19 vaccine program. Brisbane epidemiologist Steve Kisely says he wouldn’t take it, and it’s got nothing to do with blood clots.
Dr Steve Kisely - Courier Mail 5/Jul/2021

