Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
Puzzle Financial Advice
Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
Puzzle Financial Advice is NO LONGER providing personal financial advice
AstraZeneca COVID vaccine
How long after second dose of AstraZeneca vaccine, before it is effective? 9/6/21
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"Individuals may not have the best protection until 7-14days after their second dose of the vaccine."
Concerns about AstraZeneca vaccine: My alarm was raised when I first understood from Anne de Gheest's 2nd April 2021 that the AstraZeneca vaccine was not very effective against the South African and the Brazilian variants of COVID. So this page seeks to monitor developments in "that space".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford%E2%80%93AstraZeneca_COVID-19_vaccine
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At 18/Apr/21, this web page says:-
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford%E2%80%93AstraZeneca_COVID-19_vaccine#New_variant_efficacy
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"concern arose that the E484K mutation, present in the South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian (B.1.1.28) variants, could evade the protection given by the (AstraZeneca) vaccine".
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'In February 2021, the collaboration was working to adapt the vaccine to target these variants, with the expectation that a modified vaccine would be available "in a few months" as a "booster" given to people who had already completed the two-dose series of the original vaccine'. 8/Feb/2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/astrazeneca-races-to-adapt-covid-vaccine-as-south-africa-halts-rollout.html
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"3 doses, then 1 each year: why Pfizer, not AstraZeneca, is the best bet for the long haul" 20/Apr/21
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This article largely comes to the same conclusions as I have.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.351#Oxford%E2%80%93AstraZeneca_(AZD1222)
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"On 6 February 2021, The Financial Times reported that provisional trial data from a study undertaken by South Africa's University of the Witwatersrand in conjunction with Oxford University demonstrated reduced efficacy of the Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine against the 501.V2 variant. The study found that in a sample size of 2,000 the AZD1222 vaccine afforded only "minimal protection" in all but the most severe cases of COVID-19."
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.351#cite_note-85
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Booth, William; Johnson, Carolyn Y. (7 February 2021). "South Africa suspends Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rollout after researchers report 'minimal' protection against coronavirus variant". The Washington Post. London. Retrieved 8 February 2021. South Africa will suspend use of the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca after researchers found it provided "minimal protection" against mild to moderate coronavirus infections caused by the new variant first detected in that country.
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Slide from Anne de Gheest's Clinical presentation 30/Apr/2021. Note the line: "AstraZeneca is ineffective with B.1.351". Based on the scientific research, Anne de Gheest concludes:
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AstraZeneca in ineffective against the South African variant (B.1.351)
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And hence, AstraZeneca is most likely ineffective against the other variants of concern ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#Concern ) that have the same E484K mutation i.e. AstraZeneca at 1/June/21 seems ineffective against the Brazilian variants ( P.1 & P.2), the New York variant ( B.1.429 ) , some samples of the UK variant (B.1.1.7) . Also review https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#E484K

Slides from Anne de Gheest's Clinical presentation 16/Apr/2021


28/May/21 Anne de Gheest COVID Clinical update https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bI7V4lkKs4
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Europe is trialling this because of the high use of AstraZeneca in Europe.

New data show vaccines reduce severe COVID-19 in older adults 1/Mar/2021 Public Health England
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In the over 80s, data suggest that a single dose of either vaccine (Pfizer or AstraZeneca) is more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation, around 3 to 4 weeks after the jab. There is also evidence for the Pfizer vaccine, which suggests it leads to an 83% reduction in deaths from COVID-19.
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The data also shows symptomatic infections in over 70s decreasing from around 3 weeks after one dose of both vaccines.
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The new analysis adds to growing evidence that the vaccines are working and are highly effective in protecting people against severe illness, hospitalisation and death.
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“It is important to remember that protection is not complete"
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BB comment: I had been looking for some supporting evidence of these claims. While this article is not as precise and as complete as I would like, it is a good start.