Why we believe that you need to be a medium-term market timer, to do well in all markets. A lesson from history http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2021/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_210202.pdf
Puzzle Financial Advice
Jeremy Grantham 27/2/2012 "Believe in history. History repeats. All bubbles break. Be patient and focus on the long-term. Wait for the good cards."
Puzzle Financial Advice is NO LONGER providing personal financial advice
ABOUT

Bruce Baker BSc MBA DipFinPlanning
Certified Financial Planner
Bruce has been advising clients since 1993.
Qualifications:
-
In 1972 in year 12 at high school, Bruce topped his year in Mathematics and was very highly placed in the state (about 50th). This has relevance simply because it reflects very high numeracy, which is consistent with the very detailed & analytic approach Bruce takes when preparing investment & financial planning strategies for clients. Numeracy is a great strength for someone seeking to understand investment markets.
-
Bachelor of Science (Statistics) at UNSW. This statistics background has been of great value when analysing long-term (eg 200-year) data about investment markets, in search for insights into future investment risks & opportunities. https://www.puzzlefinancialadvice.com/financial-security More important, numeracy is critically important in ongoing market analysis for help identify risks and opportunities.
-
Master of Business Administration (Macquarie University)
-
Diploma of Financial Planning. In the DFP, Bruce was 1994 Australian Dux of Advanced Investment Planning.
-
More important than any of the above - experience. I have spent the the last 28 years advising on constantly learning about (and researching) investment markets. i.e. 28 years learning about how to get good financial outcomes for clients. Experience does matter.
Professional Recognition:
-
Bruce has served during 1996-1998 year on the FPA’s Queensland Practitioner’s Committee, which was charged with helping to monitor & raise the standards for professional financial planners. During 1998, Bruce was elected by his professional colleagues to serve on the FPA’s Queensland State Council. Bruce was one of two representatives for Queensland, representing Queensland dealers in the FPA's National Principals Representative Forum - for the two years to March 2006. Bruce is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). From April 2002 to October 2003, Bruce was the inaugural president of the Boutique Financial Planning Principals Group Inc, (BFPPG www.bfppg.asn.au) the association of independently-owned boutique financial planning firms, licensed through the Australian Securities & Investments Commission.
-
In this capacity, Bruce had a very intense ongoing interaction with ASIC (and the government) during the introduction of the Financial Services Reform Act. Bruce continued to be the ASIC, Treasury and government liaison point for BFPPG Inc until about 2008. The BFPPG has now been renamed as the Boutique Financial Planners Association https://bfp.asn.au/
-
-
Bruce was also director of the Australian Investors Association (www.investors.asn.au) between April 2002 to October 2003. The AIA is the premier association for investors in Australia – a very worthwhile organisation.
Investment Philosophy
-
My 200-year analysis of investment markets, has led me to believe:-
-
That markets do not behave as most investors and most advisers believe. Yes, there are periods of long-term history where , if you:
-
diversify widely,
-
ride the volatility and hand in for the long-term (eg 10-years)
-
then you will get a higher return if you take more risk.
-
BUT the data from the last 200 years of markets shows that there are a number of types of situation where this is NOT TRUE
-
-
-
My analysis of the 200 year market data tells me very clearly that:
-
If you wish to achieve good market outcomes in all markets THEN
-
you must be a medium-term market timer.
-
Yes, this makes "the investment problem" far harder than just buying and holding for the long-term.
-
But history clearly tells me that there are times like now (March 2021), when buying-and-holding for the very long-term can severely put your financial security at risk. http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2019/Core/Historic_extremes_The_long_list_we_are_currently_experiencing_190509_long.pdf
-
This following paper give you some of the evidence for why you need to be a medium-term market timer if you wish to do well in all investment markets. http://puzzlefinancialadvice.com.au/2020/Core/Static_Asset_Allocation_long_term_buy_and_hold_strategies_often_fail_Why_is_that_200408.pdf
-